Untitled-2@0.75x
As the season is set to begin, many are poised to partake in the fun the basketball season brings us by wagering their hard earned money on games, most of which results in a pricey loss. Many shy away from the commitment of long-term betting, but oftentimes that’s where the easiest lines of return lie. Over/Unders are a fun little prop to base the season-long predictions of all 30 teams, and man is Vegas good at setting these lines.
Despite their innate accuracy in creating betting lines for the uneducated, every year bookmakers leave season-long bets more up to interpretation, and with that comes the annual run of gimmes. Here are the one’s Vegas whiffed on that will likely be great long-term returns on your betting purse in no particular order.
Philadelphia 76ers — Over 50.5
Projected Record: 54-28
Last year the Philadelphia 76ers closed the year on a 51-31 record, one that eclipses their line for this year. With the additions of De’Anthony Melton, PJ Tucker, Montrezl Harrell, and Danuel House, the bench is stronger than ever, allowing more leeway for starters to miss more time without a serious dropoff.
Without Embiid, the team is still in shambles. With a career high 68-games played last season for Embiid, there is no reason to assume he’s going to miss serious time during the regular season unless met with a freak injury. As for the rest of the team, this is the deepest roster in the Eastern Conference. With their rotation at least 13-men deep, no team is built for more regular season success than the Philadelphia 76ers.
Since acquiring James Harden in February, the Philadelphia 76ers had a point differential of a 55-win team. Since then, Harden is only going to get more accustomed to the team, the team is much deeper, and the team’s x-factor Tyrese Maxey is likely going to take the leap as the team’s full-time third star. 54-wins might be a vast underestimate.
Toronto Raptors — Over 45.5
Projected Record: 49-33
Who is still doubting the Raptors? Ignoring the one outlier season they were forced to play in Tampa, the Toronto Raptors have been regular overachievers in over/under betting lines. In 8 of the last 10 years, the Raptors went above their Vegas line, being the team to do so the most in the league over the last decade.
Even taking the historical context out of the equation, what’s really the logic here? The Raptors finished last year with 48 wins, and somehow their line is projected for them to go under? Assuming Pascal Siakam doesn’t have as slow of a start as he did last year, if anything the Raptors are expected to be better.
With projected leaps from OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and especially Precious Achiuwa, and no major roster switch ups or injuries besides the addition of Otto Porter Jr. to bolster their bench, the Raptors are in an excellent position to win 50 games this season. Their team is as strong as their defense takes them, and with the grossly immeasurable conjoined wingspan this roster shares, you can assure that’s pretty far.
Milwaukee Bucks — Under 52.5
Projected Record: 50-32
Note that this is exclusively a regular season win total bet. The Milwaukee Bucks are the favorites to make it out of the eastern conference, but that doesn’t reflect that they will likely struggle to eclipse 50 wins this year. Last year only tallying 51, the Bucks don’t look like they’ll even reach those heights.
The Bucks roster is far from deep. With aging veterans littering the roster, it’s safe to expect the Bucks to coast through a lot of the regular season with title hopes looming over their heads.
Last season’s playoff campaign ended do-in-part to one of their big 3, Khris Middleton, missing the Conference Semifinals because of injury; something the Bucks don’t want to repeat this season. The aforementioned Khris Middleton is also set to miss the first few weeks of the season due to wrist injury, which sets them up to drop a lot of games the team is normally expected to win.
With Khris Middleton missing significant time, Jrue Holiday putting a bigger offensive load on his back, Brook Lopez, George Hill, Wesley Matthews, and Serge Ibaka only expected to look worse as they ages out, the Bucks’ offense is going to take a harsh dip from their 3rd-ranked offensive rating in the league last season. To make things worse, their only significant offseason acquisitions were drafting the rookie MarJon Beauchamp and overpaying a now-35-year old Joe Ingles who has yet to play a game since tearing his ACL with the Jazz last season
All live variables point to the direction that the Bucks won’t look as good as they have in years past in the regular season, and that doesn’t even account for the possibility if any of Giannis, Jrue, or President Portis are forced to miss significant time. Title hopes are a different story, but it feels really unlikely the Bucks win 53 or more games this season.
Orlando Magic — Over 26.5
Projected Record: 36-46
Stop sleeping on the Orlando Magic. Their roster is stacked with young talent, and after winning out the lottery last season, there’s less incentive than ever to tank. The team hasn’t made the playoffs since 2019, and beyond playoff hopes, have consistently been one of the worst teams in the league since.
The core is there, the talent is there, and most importantly, the urge to win is finally there. Sure, the Orlando Magic could have asked for more from their younger prospects they acquired over the last few years, but even then, they have one of the strongest young cores in the league.
The trio of Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. have an average age of just 21, yet still walk into next season as the best playmaking frontcourt aside from Nikola Jokic and two traffic cones. The sky’s the limit with that trio, not to mention other young budding players waiting to take a leap at any given moment.
It’s impossible Jalen Suggs plays any worse than he did last year, so everything is an improvement from last season. Barring too much time missed by Markelle Fultz, he will be a big piece in keeping the team’s perimeter defense intact. Cole Anthony looked like a legitimate NBA starter last year and his playmaking threat becomes greater with another downhill roll-threat in Paolo Banchero as an option. The team has a load of flyers in Bol Bol, RJ Hampton, and Chuma Okeke, and if any of them translate to actual NBA talent, it’ll bolster this Magic roster that’s already starting to seem fairly deep with raw talent.
Oh yeah, and Jon Isaac might play basketball again.
Franz Wagner is set to take that leap. He looked phenomenal playing for Germany over the summer, and has skated as the league’s most under-appreciated rookie last season. We all know from past experience after past experience that progression isn’t linear, but Franz has gotten better and better with time, and looks to become the main building piece next to Paolo Banchero as a bright future for the Orlando Magic.
Odds are the Magic are much likelier to make the push for the play-in game than the Wembanyana sweepstakes.
Charlotte Hornets — Under 36.5
Projected Record: 24-58
The Hornets are a mess. Pushing LaMelo Ball aside for now, there might not be a team in the league in a worse long-term position than the Charlotte Hornets. LaMelo is set to miss an undisclosed amount of time to start the season (although not expected to be long) and it’s a guarantee that the team is going to look putrid without him.
Dennis Smith Jr. was the only free agent signing the Hornets made. What more can be said to highlight the failures of the Charlotte front office this past summer than that single, echoing sentence.
Among the slew of arrests made by Hornets’ players, none more detrimental to the team’s success than Miles Bridges’. No sympathy given to a man accused of abusing his girlfriend, but the Hornets are victims of a massive hit. That was their second guy. Just like that they lose him for nothing. Who knows what the fate of Miles Bridges will be — if people like him got the retribution they deserved, he wouldn’t sniff an NBA court ever again — but he won’t be playing for the Hornets, or any team for that matter, in the foreseeable future.
Aside from Bridges, the Hornets lost Montrezl Harrell and replaced him with rookie Mark Williams, who likely won’t contribute to much success early on. The incoming sophomores on the roster have yet to show any promise as actual NBA players, let alone positive-value ones. The recently-arrested James Bouknight had a very rough rookie year, and even with the excuse of young guards taking longer to develop, his off-court antics make it hard to have any faith in Bouknight being a long-term, franchise-altering player. Kai Jones is still promising, but still way too raw.
No one is excited to see what the Hornet’s defense has in store, and man, will this team struggle to put that orange ball in through that polyester net anytime LaMelo Ball is off the floor. The Hornets, more so than any other team, can really use a potentially generational talent in next year’s draft, and it won’t take long into the season before the team’s management realizes that.
Denver Nuggets — Over 49.5
Projected Record: 51-31
It seems really unlikely the Nuggets win less than 50 games with a healthy roster. Last year without the team’s two best players (who are both VERY good) the Nuggets were only half a game short of this year’s line.
The additions of Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. Bruce Brown, and Zeke Nnaji, plus the upgrade of Kentavious Calwell-Pope over Will Barton, and any progression in the game of the very bright Bones Hyland all add up to this being an easy over. What the team will look like with DeAndre Jordan in place of Jokic will give people nightmares, but it’s not enough to tank the stock of this team.
51-31 seems very conservative. I can’t imagine the Nuggets winning less than 50 wins unless someone faces a serious injury again.
Sacramento Kings — Over 36.5
Projected Record: 38-44
The Kings are trying to win harder than ever before. Expect banners to be raised if they even manage to sneak their way into a play-in spot, which is 100% their goal for the upcoming season.
Everything the Kings have done in the past two seasons points them in the direction of desperately trying to win now. Trading the best draft pick they had in a decade in Tyrese Haliburton for a borderline all star who’s never even made it to the playoffs in an year he was selected with the honor in Domantas Sabonis, drafting a 21-year old Davion Mitchell in the top-10, despite having the team’s two best players at the time be point guards, and now drafting a player who’s turned 22 before every playing an NBA game fourth overall in Keegan Murray in this year’s draft. Despite all the recent moves, the Kings have yet to sniff the playoffs, but this year might be different.
The Kings have made some sneaky offseason acquisitions that help support this not-so-hidden theory that they want to break that 16-year missed playoff streak this season. Getting guys like Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk bring depth in scoring to an already respectable offense.
De’Aaron Fox looked fantastic in the second half of the season, and if he continues where he left off , the Kings should have no trouble scoring. The issue this team has is their horrendous defense that only looks to be worse with a full 82 games of Sabonis starting as the team’s center.
Regardless of the team’s issues, they will desperately fight tooth-and-nail to make the play-in game at the very least. They might not reach those average heights, but will die trying — and win more than 35 games along the way.
Minnesota Timberwolves — Over 48.5
Projected Record: 57-25
This is the biggest boom-or-bust pick in the bunch.
Seemingly every year the oddsmakers are off by almost double-digit wins for a couple of teams and it’s a plausible risk to believe one of this year’s will be the Minnesota Timberwolves.
This team is built for regular season success. Any team anchored by Rudy Gobert instantly becomes a perennial top-10 defense. It sure doesn’t help that the Timberwolves’ starting point from last year is already above league average in that department. The losses of Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Josh Okogie would stipend the team’s defense if they were being replaced by anyone except the Stifle Tower.
This team goes 12-men deep as well. Chris Finch built one of the league’s most creative defensive schemes last season, and has the man-power to implement that across 48 minutes a game while being held down by the league’s best on that end.
The biggest question mark on the defensive end is easily how Karl-Anthony Towns will fair switching and shifting to defenders on the perimeter. The team’s rim defense will rise exponentially, but are still susceptible to barrages of threes if there is a glaring hole on the perimeter.
This team’s ceiling is as high as Anthony Edwards’ potential is. Everyone and their mother is convinced it’s the year for Anthony Edwards to blast through the gates of stardom. Mysteriously adding on 15-pounds of muscle over the summer, Edwards is fully embracing the idea that he is the next superstar to break through development stages in a Timberwolves jersey, and be the cornerstone of a great regular season team at the least.
Most people won’t chalk up the Timberwolves winning 57 games and owning the league’s best record, but eclipsing 50 wins shouldn’t be a tall task for this team if they stay healthy and Ant makes literally any type of improvement of his already impressive self.
New Orleans Pelicans — Over 44.5
Projected Record: 48-34
Simply having Zion Williamson is a top-10 offense in itself. People truly forget how historic of a season he had as a sophomore — with less than half a season as a rookie mind you! Pairing alongside CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas, anyone in the Pelicans’ quartet is a threat to score 20+ on any given night.
Winning 12 more games than last season is a tough feat to accomplish, but a full season with McCollum and Nance in the mix, with development from Jones Alvarado, Trey Murphy III, Jaxson Hayes, and Mr. Fantastic Herb Jones, the additions of Kira Lewis and another great defender Dyson Daniels, and most importantly, Zion Williamson returning the a basketball court, the Pelicans are within the realm of possibility of cracking 50 wins.
Utah Jazz — Under 24.5
Projected Record: 19-63
Not many executives in the league know the value of a high draft pick more than Danny Ainge. Morse likely to embrace the tank than his western conference contemporary Gregg Popovich, Ainge and the new-look Jazz looked a massive mess on defense without Gobert on the floor last year, and only look to be even worse than that without him on the floor at all this year.
The Jazz still have some veterans that could get in the way of the team losing enough games, but odds are Michael Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, and Rudy Gay will be shipped off to contenders the first chance the Jazz get.
Some preseason decision making is already extremely questionable. The concept to have Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Talen Horton-Tucker as the starting guards ahead of Collin Sexton as well as one of the few young, promising guards Jared Butler being cut from the final 15-man roster leaves people to assume the Jazz are en route to a full revamp.
Unless Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton transform into superstars overnight, the Utah Jazz are going to be one of the worst teams in the league. No team won less than 20 games just a season ago, but none of them were trying to lose from day 1. The Utah Jazz might be.
Boston Celtics — Under 53.5
Projected Record: 51-31
No way a change of a head coach on the dime for a team that made it to the Finals last season that was built on their defense doesn’t see some type of drop-off. If Gallinari didn’t suffer a season-ending injury before suiting up, I’d feel a little better about the bench, but especially with Robert Williams III missing significant time, the Celtics are very likely to start the season slow; as they seem to do every season.
The Gallinari comment aside, the Celtics are still among the deepest teams in their conference, but they’re defensive identity will be in question without their most impactful defender to start the season. It doesn’t help that this time around the Celtics don’t have Theis as a backup and Horford and Griffin are in their mid-30’s and wouldn’t be able to pick up that big of a load in excess minutes.
For reference, the Celtics went 51-31 last season, and unless there’s some unseen leap from Tatum and Brown, it’s unlikely they manage to win 3 more games than last season with something as drastic as a head coaching change.
